The rapid urbanization in China has connecting singles profili been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing COdos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.
Inclusion
There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO2 emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .
Program personality model away from urbanization below energy constraints from inside the Asia
Even if urban extension carry out speeds times application 17,18,19 , the new automotive energy play with is likely to correlate adversely towards urbanization peak due to economic climates off measure 20,21,22 . For example, a whole lot more urbanized portion inside Canada ate all the way down each capita energy 23 . In addition, complete opportunity consumption of outlying house was larger than compared to metropolitan house, while the more than 85% out-of outlying house fool around with ineffective solid-fuel 24 . Based on Buyers Studies Platform, 275 locations around the globe explore hydropower, 189 metropolitan areas use snap strength, and 184 towns and cities fool around with solar power solar pv strength. At the least 100 metropolises explore renewable energy to achieve 70% out-of energy, such Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and you will Nairobi. In the usa, 58 places, plus Atlanta and North park, has plans to change in order to one hundred% neat and renewable power. Towards the current technical and effort storage, it’s anticipated to achieve one hundred% renewable energy supply around the globe and you can go zero carbon dioxide emissions from the 2025. The worldwide fuel age group design during the 2050 is anticipated because less than: solar power photovoltaic (69%), snap energy (18%), hydropower (8%), and you can biomass (2%), having opportunity storage electric batteries level 30% out-of strength demand. It’s indexed that all of your earth’s prominent dams and fuel vegetation have China, if you are Yunnan Province and you will Guizhou Province lead 30% regarding China’s hydropower. The Jinsha River by yourself has a beneficial 9-height dam. Brand new stamina made by these hydropower are physically transmitted so you can Guangdong and you will Hong-kong from higher-voltage grid. Considering the numerous hydropower resources designed for cooling, Guizhou Province has feel China’s primary studies center feet. When you look at the 2018, Apple Corporation established new iCloud investigation cardio in the Guizhou. Just about every highest They organization of Asia possess create research centers from inside the Guizhou, plus Alibaba, Huawei, and Asia Mobile.
Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO2 emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO2 emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.